Macro

Welcome to the Macro outpost! “Macro” stands for macroeconomics and involves looking at the bigger picture of the economy. We will be looking at labor shortages, international conflicts, supply chain issues, and central banking policies. Notably, macroeconomic factors affect all asset classes.

Feb 16

3 min read

U.S. PPI January

The Labor Department's report indicated that monthly producer prices rose 0.7% in January, driven by higher energy and commodity prices. On an annual basis, inflation cooled to 6% in January from a 6.5% increase in December, contrary to economists' expectations. The ongoing uncertainty around the future direction of inflation highlights the importance of monitoring economic indicators and the potential impact of policy changes on the economy.

Feb 15

3 min read

U.S. Retail Sales January

The latest retail sales data provides a positive indication of the state of the U.S. economy. Therefore, it will be essential to monitor consumer spending trends in the coming months to understand the economic recovery trajectory better.

Feb 14

3 min read

U.S. CPI January

The increase in the CPI in January was largely driven by rising gasoline prices, but other factors also contributed to the overall rise in inflation. As inflation continues to be a concern for policymakers and consumers.

Feb 13

6 min read

A Change to the CPI Methodology

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a widely used measure of inflation that tracks the changes in the prices of goods and services over time. Recently, there has been a change to the CPI methodology that could significantly impact how inflation is measured and understood.

Feb 13

3 min read

U.S Initial Jobless Claims

The latest data from the United States Department of Labor shows an increase in initial jobless claims, which suggests a slight slowdown in the US economy. However, the labour market remains strong, with job openings rising back above 11 million in December, according to the latest monthly survey by the Labor Department. The January labour market report also showed that the labour market has been consistently more robust than previously thought, with the Labor Department raising its total nonfarm employment estimate by over half a million.

Feb 08

2 min read

The Jerome Powell Speech

Many experts believe that the recent jobs report should be treated with caution and does not accurately reflect the overall state of the US economy, which is not booming but also not on the verge of a recession.

Feb 07

4 min read

Start Watching the US Dollar

In the past few months, asset prices have experienced a significant rally, but there really hasn't been a narrative for them. Some are calling this an Echo bubble others a bear market rally.

Feb 03

5 min read

A Final Wave of Inflation

A second wave of inflation, like that of the 1970s, cannot be predicted with certainty, as it is influenced by multiple factors that change over time. A complex interplay of factors caused the inflationary episode in the 1970s, but the current economic situation is different and will be influenced by various factors. Therefore, it is impossible to know how inflation will behave in the future.

Feb 03

January Non-Farmer Payrolls & Unemployment Rate

After a week of soft landing talk by central bankers, the US jobs report revealed a strong US economy that may lead to a rethink of monetary policy plans.

Feb 02

ECB Raises Rates Once Again

The ECB's recent interest rate increase is a proactive step to fight inflation and ensure that the eurozone's economy remains stable. The central bank's commitment to maintaining price stability is crucial for the long-term health of the eurozone's economy and its member states.