Welcome to the Macro outpost! “Macro” stands for macroeconomics and involves looking at the bigger picture of the economy. We will be looking at labor shortages, international conflicts, supply chain issues, and central banking policies. Notably, macroeconomic factors affect all asset classes.
09 Mar 2023
5 min read
European Macro Recap & Outlook
The ECB's recent meetings have given us an insight into their thought process on monetary policy. The central bank is committed to maintaining price stability, which is crucial for the long-term health of the euro zone's economy and its member states.
28 Feb 2023
2 min read
Federal Governor Phillip Jefferson Speech
Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson gave a talk on where inflation is headed and argued against raising the central bank's inflation target. Jefferson believes that if the Federal Reserve changes their stance on inflation, that this would cause reputational damage to them.
24 Feb 2023
3 min read
January PCE Release
The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased to 4.7% YoY in January, higher than economists' expectation of 4.3% growth. This unexpected surge in inflation may force the Fed to take more aggressive action, worrying investors already anxious about rising prices. The revised figure for December's core PCE of 4.6% shows that price growth at the end of last year was hotter than previously thought.
22 Feb 2023
2 min read
FOMC Minutes Release
The recent minutes suggest that the Fed is taking a cautious approach to its current cycle of rate hikes. While the Fed still believes that further increases may be necessary, policymakers are signaling they are nearing a possible endpoint. The next few months will be critical in determining how the Fed navigates this delicate balance between inflation and economic growth.
20 Feb 2023
3 min read
Chinese Easing to Start
China's decision to maintain its benchmark lending rates shows its stable economic recovery and cautious approach to monetary policy. The country's accommodative stance is expected to continue through liquidity-related actions in the short term, supporting its ongoing economic growth.
16 Feb 2023
3 min read
U.S. PPI January
The Labor Department's report indicated that monthly producer prices rose 0.7% in January, driven by higher energy and commodity prices. On an annual basis, inflation cooled to 6% in January from a 6.5% increase in December, contrary to economists' expectations. The ongoing uncertainty around the future direction of inflation highlights the importance of monitoring economic indicators and the potential impact of policy changes on the economy.
15 Feb 2023
3 min read
U.S. Retail Sales January
The latest retail sales data provides a positive indication of the state of the U.S. economy. Therefore, it will be essential to monitor consumer spending trends in the coming months to understand the economic recovery trajectory better.
14 Feb 2023
3 min read
U.S. CPI January
The increase in the CPI in January was largely driven by rising gasoline prices, but other factors also contributed to the overall rise in inflation. As inflation continues to be a concern for policymakers and consumers.
13 Feb 2023
A Change to the CPI Methodology
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a widely used measure of inflation that tracks the changes in the prices of goods and services over time. Recently, there has been a change to the CPI methodology that could significantly impact how inflation is measured and understood.
13 Feb 2023
U.S Initial Jobless Claims
The latest data from the United States Department of Labor shows an increase in initial jobless claims, which suggests a slight slowdown in the US economy. However, the labour market remains strong, with job openings rising back above 11 million in December, according to the latest monthly survey by the Labor Department. The January labour market report also showed that the labour market has been consistently more robust than previously thought, with the Labor Department raising its total nonfarm employment estimate by over half a million.
08 Feb 2023
The Jerome Powell Speech
Many experts believe that the recent jobs report should be treated with caution and does not accurately reflect the overall state of the US economy, which is not booming but also not on the verge of a recession.
07 Feb 2023
Start Watching the US Dollar
In the past few months, asset prices have experienced a significant rally, but there really hasn't been a narrative for them. Some are calling this an Echo bubble others a bear market rally.
