Close to the bottom- Flagship Vault Update Week 18

Over the past seven days, the Portfolio Vault's share price has decreased from $76.57 to $64.34, or a 15.97% decrease. Regarding BTC and ETH, the Flagship portfolio vault underperformed both by 8.17% and 10.87%.

Portfolio Vault Assets update

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is down 7.8% this week. Inflows into the nine exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to Bitcoin have been down for the last week. This is also the first time that the Blackrock Bitcoin ETF has had outflows. As this is the case, Bitcoin is currently in a downward trend.

Regarding technical indicators, Bitcoin has broken its daily trend and range. Now that Bitcoin has broken its range, It Has accelerated to the downside. With Bitcoin trading at $56k, It is closer to a potential bottom than last week. It will be interesting to see how we trade in the following week.

The Open Network

Over the past week, TON has seen a 12.79% decrease. Recently, Tether announced that they will be bringing their stablecoin USDT to the TON ecosystem. Being the first large stablecoin on TON, Tether will attract more liquidity to the ecosystem.

TON has recently lost its daily trend but is currently at its previous consolidation phase. While it has lost its trend and you can expect lower, all that matters is what BTC does. If BTC decides to move up, TON will follow.

Pendle Finance

Pendle has decreased by 30.30% over the last seven days, continuing its long-term and short-term trends. The Total Value Locked (TVL) has dropped by $1 billion due to the recent Eigenlayer token release. With the Eigenlayer token release, the points farming on Pendle has stopped, causing a short-term significant volume drop.

Pendle has recently lost its daily trend but is currently at its previous consolidation phase. While it has lost its trend and you can expect lower, all that matters is what BTC does. If BTC decides to move up, Pendle will follow.

Solana

Solana has decreased by 10.55% in the last seven days. With Solana overtaking Ethereum on DEX volumes, most on-chain participants have flipped over to Solana because of the cheap fees.

The chart for Solana looks good in terms of a high time frame, as it has retraced a large part of its previous move and looking to build support at the last consolidation phase.

Fetch

Fetch is down 13.81% in the last seven days. It is currently undergoing a merger with SingularityNet and Ocean Protocol. They are discussing merging their tokens into an AltSignals (ASI) token with a fully diluted valuation of $7.5 billion.

Fetch is one of the Alts that have not made new lows, while BTC has not made new lows. With a potential bottom coming in, Fetch would be a top performer as it hasn't made any new lows.

Bittensor

Bittensor is down 17.94% in the last seven days. Spot Bittensor was finally listed on a tier 1 exchange. Binance has decided to Bittensor. This inclusion on Binance could boost TAO’s market liquidity and accessibility, potentially elevating its market position.

While Bittensor has been underperforming these last few weeks, from a fundamental perspective, it is one of the strongest projects out there. It captures every sub-AI sector, as all of these can be built on the Bittensor Network.

Ondo

Ondo Finance is down 10.04% in the last seven days. Ondo is a DeFi protocol that aims to provide institutional-grade financial products on the blockchain, including tokens backed by U.S. Treasuries. It has been supported by prominent figures in the financial industry, including Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock, one of the world's largest asset management firms.

Ondo's technical indicators are also bullish. It's one of the few adults that has been able to hold its daily trend.

Pyth

Pyth Network is down 16.56% in the last seven days. With new applications being launched daily, more and more are picking Pyth over Chainlink as an Oracle provider. This has caused the gap in market cap to diminish. There is speculation that Pyth Stakers will also receive numerous airdrops.

Pyth had a significant run-up and retraced the move. It is now completely dependant on the next Bitcoin move. If Bitcoin trades higher, Pyth will follow.

Stacks

Stacks is down 21.82% in the last seven days. The Nakamoto upgrade of Stacks has been delayed once again, as it requires an additional eight weeks of development time.

With the Nakamoto upgrade being implemented and the whole Bitcoin ecosystem catching up due to the recent Runes hype, Stacks could be reentering the spotlight.

Indicator list

Forex Markets

The Forex market is a proxy for risk on or off the environment. EUR/USD is looking strong, and the Forex market is currently looking like a risk-off environment. The dollar is looking quite strong. It trades above 100 and above the 200-day MA, a high-risk-off scenario. Macro indicators have less influence on the crypto ecosystem at this time.

DeFi Stablecoin TVL.

When the Total Value Locked (TVL) exceeds the market capitalization, it indicates a risk-on environment. Conversely, if the TVL falls below the market cap, it suggests a risk-off scenario where investors are more cautious. Recently, TVL has been trending upward, but is stagnating. Thus indicating a neutral environment.

Relative Strength Index

The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator; RSI measures the speed and magnitude of an asset's recent price changes. When the RSI is above 50 on either daily or weekly charts, it signals a risk-on environment. Conversely, an RSI below 50 on these timeframes suggests a risk-off atmosphere. With both daily charts now having lost the 50 RSI, we could experience another 10-15% drop.

Trends

We utilise the 12, 21, and 36 Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), precise tools for market analysis, to determine the daily and weekly trends. A move below these EMAs on the daily chart will indicate a shift towards a risk-off environment, signalling caution among investors. The market is showing signs of stagnation but hasn't lost the daily trend, suggesting a steady state without clear indications of a downturn. When the market reclaims its position above these EMAs on the daily timeframe, it will be considered a sign of transitioning into a risk-on environment. Currently, we have lost the daily trends, untill the daily trends have been reclaimed we could experience some more downturn.

Bitcoin Dominance

Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) doesn't directly indicate a risk-on or risk-off environment. Still, deciding our allocation strategy between Bitcoin and the rest of our portfolio is crucial. An upward trend in BTC.D suggests an increased allocation towards Bitcoin, while a downward trend signals a shift in preference towards investing more in blockchains and decentralized applications (dApps). Currently, we're on the lookout for an upward move. This could be a correction in Bitcoin that could result in an even more significant downturn for altcoins.

ETF Inflows

Reviewing ETF inflows helps us understand the money movements of institutional investors. The spot bitcoin ETF market experienced a record $563.7 million of net outflows on Wednesday. This increase in outflows has followed the fourth bitcoin halving, an event that has historically led to positive bitcoin price movements. This single day of large outflows must be kept in perspective, as they account for only around 1% of the total inflows that have come into the investment products since January.

Total Market Caps

In analyzing market cap indicators to gauge the overall sentiment in the crypto market, we consider three different aspects. The first indicator, which is the total market cap of the cryptocurrency sector, hasn't reached an all-time high but is showing neutral signs.

The second market cap indicator, which excludes Bitcoin, appears weaker than the first and faces resistance. This situation presents a neutral to risk-off sentiment for altcoins while still bullish for Bitcoin, suggesting that Bitcoin might be a safer bet than other cryptocurrencies in the current market condition.

The third indicator goes further by excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum from the total market cap, revealing an even more bearish outlook. This hints at a potential increase in bearish sentiment across altcoins, except Bitcoin, which remains relatively bullish.

Liquidity

Global liquidity trends serve as a barometer for market sentiment, with an upward trend being synonymous with a risk-on environment. This suggests investors are more willing to take on risk, buoyed by the availability of capital. Conversely, a downward trend in global liquidity marks a shift towards a risk-off environment, indicating a more cautious approach by investors as capital becomes scarcer.

Similarly, the trend in US liquidity follows the same pattern. An increase in US liquidity points to a risk-on sentiment within the United States, reflecting confidence and a willingness among investors to pursue riskier assets. On the other hand, a decline in US liquidity signals a risk-off mood, where there's a tendency to shy away from risk, prioritizing stability and safer investments instead.

Currently, both global liquidity and US liquidity have started to show upward trends, suggesting a more risk-on environment in markets. This indicates that investors, both globally and in the US, could have a larger risk appetite.

Risk profile

We have decided to remain ultra-bullish on Bitcoin despite seeing a loss of trends and a more bearish environment. We are still in a bull market and are already completely deployed at better prices. Consequently, we have decided not to rebalance the vault. As such, the new vault allocations are:

Until next week,

Flagship’s Captain team