Deeper look into the price crashes of recently listed TG projects like Hamster Kombat, Catizen and Dogs.

Introduction to the Assets and Their Airdrops

Hamster Kombat, Catizen, and DOGS were all introduced as part of the growing trend of gamified crypto projects on TON, where tokens were distributed to users through airdrops as part of the projects' marketing strategies. These airdrops generated significant hype and anticipation, especially given the massive number of users involved—Hamster Kombat claimed 300 million users, Catizen had over 40 million, and DOGS set a record with 53 million users during its Token Generation Event (TGE)​.

Each of these projects relied on similar tap-to-earn game mechanics, where users earned tokens through in-game activities. This model initially attracted a large number of participants, but the reality of the post-launch market showed that these tokens were primarily viewed as short-term speculative assets. Shortly after being listed on exchanges, the prices of these tokens plummeted as users sold off their airdropped holdings, creating significant downward pressure on prices.

Hamster Kombat (HMSTR)

Hamster Kombat’s token (HMSTR) was launched on September 26, 2024. Despite early excitement, the price of HMSTR dropped by 54% within just one week, from $0.01 to $0.0046. The sharp decline was driven by a combination of factors, including dissatisfaction with the airdrop process and a significant portion of the token supply being locked up for an extended period.

Only 131 million of the 300 million users claimed by Hamster Kombat were eligible for the airdrop, leaving a large portion of the user base empty-handed. Additionally, 11.25% of the total 60 billion HMSTR tokens allocated for Season 1 were locked for 10 months, preventing any sales during that period. This caused frustration among users who felt that their ability to profit from the airdrop was limited. The combination of a restricted token supply and an overhyped launch led to heavy selling pressure once the token hit exchanges​.

Catizen (CATI)

Catizen, another popular Telegram game token, experienced an even more dramatic price drop. Launched on September 20, 2024, the token peaked at $1.10 but quickly fell by nearly 60%, reaching $0.45 in just two weeks. The rapid decline was largely due to discontent with the airdrop distribution and the game's reward mechanics.

Catizen’s airdrop was performance-based, with users categorized into different leagues based on their in-game achievements. Out of the 40 million players, only 15 million were eligible for the airdrop, and many of those who qualified received small token allocations. This created widespread dissatisfaction, as users felt that the time and effort spent playing the game were not adequately rewarded. As a result, many participants quickly sold their tokens, contributing to the sharp decline in CATI’s price​.

Additionally, the in-game economy of Catizen, centered around the collection of "vKitty" currency and cat management, failed to generate enough long-term interest to support the token's value. Once the novelty wore off, the lack of deeper utility for the token became apparent, further driving down demand.

DOGS

The DOGS token followed a similar pattern. Launched in August 2024, DOGS saw massive participation during its TGE, with over 53 million users involved and 17 million successfully claiming their airdropped tokens. Despite the initial excitement, the token's price fell by 25% shortly after its debut​.

The price drop for DOGS can be attributed to profit-taking by early participants who were eager to cash in on their airdropped tokens. As with Hamster Kombat and Catizen, the immediate rush to sell tokens led to a sharp decline in value. Despite the token's meme-driven popularity and record-setting TGE, DOGS struggled to maintain its initial momentum in the open market​.

What These Projects Have in Common

The price crashes of Hamster Kombat, Catizen, and DOGS share several common elements:

1. Airdrop Hype Followed by Sell-Offs: All three projects heavily relied on airdrops to generate excitement and user engagement. However, once the tokens were distributed, many users sold their holdings, causing significant downward pressure on prices. This pattern suggests that the airdrop model, while effective for generating short-term hype, may not lead to long-term token stability​.
   
2. Lack of Long-Term Utility: Beyond the initial appeal of the games themselves, there was little long-term utility for the tokens. Without deeper integration into the TON ecosystem or additional use cases, the value of the tokens quickly diminished once the novelty wore off​.

Conclusion: Impact on User Sentiment and the TON Ecosystem

The rapid crashes of Hamster Kombat, Catizen, and DOGS have raised concerns about the sustainability of Telegram-based gaming projects on the TON blockchain. While these tokens initially generated significant interest through massive user participation and record-setting airdrops, their steep declines have left many users questioning the long-term viability of such projects.

The reliance on airdrops and the tap-to-earn model, combined with a lack of deeper utility for the tokens, has created a pattern of quick sell-offs and price crashes. As a result, user confidence in the TON ecosystem has been shaken. If future projects continue to follow this path, the TON network risks losing engagement and credibility as users look for more stable and rewarding opportunities in the broader crypto space​.

For the TON ecosystem to regain trust and stability, future projects will need to offer more than just short-term gains and focus on building sustainable value for their tokens. Otherwise, the risk of further declines and reduced user engagement remains high.