Bitcoin Trading at $80,000 at Flagship - Vault Update Week 13

Over the past 7 days, the share price of the Portfolio Vault went from $72.74 to $80.48, which is a 10.64% increase. In terms of BTC and ETH, the Flagship portfolio vault outperformed both BTC and ETH by 5.47% and 9.24%

The best performing asset in the Flagship vault was Pendle Finance, Pendle finance increased by 54% with its TVL reaching over $3 billion. Other great performing assets in the flagship vault were Fetch AI and TON. Three prominent artificial intelligence protocols, SingularityNet, Fetch.ai and Ocean Protocol are in discussions to merge their tokens into an AltSignals (ASI) token that would have a fully diluted valuation of $7.5 billion. Recently TON unveiled a $124M Incentive program. This program will take place over four month-long seasons starting April 1. The first season will offer roughly $15 million worth of tokens to developers that meet key performance indicators

Portfolio Vault Assets update

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is up 5.5% this week. Inflows into the nine recently launched exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to bitcoin have resumed their upward trajectory this week after the cryptocurrency's price bounced back from its dip last week.

At the start of the week, the battle for leadership in the Bitcoin investment space saw a dramatic shift. Initially, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust was in the lead, but it was quickly overtaken by the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, which attracted more than twice the investment flows compared to BlackRock's offering, according to BitMEX data. However, by Wednesday, the iShares ETF had bounced back, experiencing its most significant inflows since mid-March.

When it comes to technical indicators, Bitcoin is one of the best-looking charts. The daily structure seems to have been reset and seems to be ready to make another leg up. It will be interesting to see how ETF flows are correlated to a potential next leg up in the following week.

The Open Network

Over the past week, TON has seen a 19.94% decrease. Recently TON unveiled a $124M Incentive program. This program will take place over four-month-long seasons starting April 1. The first season will offer roughly $15 million worth of tokens to developers that meet key performance indicators. TON's daily chart seems to be another great-looking chart. After taking a leg up, TON is now in its consolidation phase. TON will probably cool off the following week.

Pendle Finance

Pendle has increased by 54.17% over the last seven days, continuing both its long-term and short-term trends. The Total Value Locked (TVL) has reached a new all-time high this week, but Pendle keeps achieving milestones every week.

Pendle's technical indicators are also very bullish. Just like TON it had a leg up in the last 7 days and will probably consolidate in the coming days and weeks.

Solana

Solana has increased by 1.83% in the last seven days. With Solana overtaking Ethereum on DEX volumes, it seems that most on-chain participants have flipped over to Solana because of the cheap fees.

For Solana, the chart does look good on a high time frame, but there is a certain weakness ongoing. This is more than likely a short-term weakness but it seems to underperforming Bitcoin.

Fetch

Fetch is up 23.43% in the last seven days. Fetch is currently undergoing a merge with SingularityNet and Ocean Protocol. They are in discussions to merge their tokens into an AltSignals (ASI) token that would have a fully diluted valuation of $7.5 billion.

Fetch like Pendle and TON made their leg up this week. While it did make its leg up it seems to be slightly earlier in this cycle. It could be that Fetch continues to move higher and break its all time high in the coming week.

Bittensor

Bittensor is down 13.84% in the last seven days. The launch of subnets in October was a tremendous success, with subnet slots filling up with exciting projects. Subnets have allowed the creation of a plethora of mechanisms on Bittensor, but the design is not complete. There are rumours and speculations that the subnets could grow to 1028 different subnets this year.

While Bittensor has been underperforming these last few weeks, from a technical perspective it has reached a very interesting point on the chart. With all the different updates coming in the coming months, we believe this underperformance to be temporary.

Celestia

Celestia is down 4.59% in the last 7 days. Celestia is a modular consensus and data network that enables anyone to easily deploy their blockchain with minimal overhead. Celestia has a huge hype for airdrop farmers, as every Celestia partner is airdropping tokens to Celestia stakers.

After being the top-performing large-cap from Nov 2023 to Jan 2024, Celestia has been cooling off for the last 3 months. Celestia is now forming an accumulation range, once we are able to break out from this range, Celestia will return to a top performer.

Pyth

Pyth Network is down 9.67% in the last 7 days. With new applications being launched every day, more and more of these are picking Pyth over Chainlink as an Oracle provider. This has caused the gap in market cap to diminish. There is a lot of speculation going around that Pyth Stakers will also be receiving numerous airdrops in the future.

Pyth had a great run-up the last two weeks and is now consolidating. It is reaching a very interesting point for its next leg up. If Bitcoin continues to trade higher or just consolidate, Pyth will take its next leg up.

Stacks

Stacks is up 0.82% in the last seven days. Stacks is a Bitcoin layer for smart contracts, the Nakamoto upgrade will begin rolling out between April 15 - 29.

With the Nakamoto upgrade starting in the coming weeks and Bitcoin halving, we can expect Stacks to enter the spotlight. Its price action is still bullish but could see some consolidation in the coming weeks.

Indicator list

Forex Markets

The Forex market is used as a proxy for a risk on or risk off environment. EUR/USD was
looking strong last week, looking more bullish for the dollar right now. The whole Forex market is in a bit of a limbo, hovering between risk on and off. The Dollar is looking quite strong. It is trading Above 100 and above the 200 Day MA, which is a high risk-off scenario. Macro indicators do seem to have less influence on the crypto ecosystem at this time.

DeFi Stablecoin TVL.

When the Total Value Locked (TVL) exceeds the market capitalization, it indicates a risk-on environment. Conversely, if the TVL falls below the market cap, it suggests a risk-off scenario where investors are more cautious. Recently, TVL has been trending upward thus indicating a risk on environement.

Relative Strength Index

The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator, RSI measures the speed and magnitude of a assets recent price changes. When the RSI is above 50 on either daily or weekly charts, it signals a risk-on environment. Conversely, an RSI below 50 on these timeframes suggests a risk-off atmosphere. Currently, with both weekly and daily charts appearing strong and having reset, there's an anticipation for a new upward movement.

Trends

We'll be utilizing the 12, 21, and 36 Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) to determine the daily and weekly trends. A move below these EMAs on the daily chart will indicate a shift towards a risk-off environment, signaling caution among investors. Currently, the market is showing signs of stagnation but hasn't lost the daily trend, suggesting a steady state without clear indications of a downturn. When the market begins to reclaim its position above these EMAs on the daily timeframe, it will be considered a sign of transitioning into a risk-on environment. Current we are holding all trends.

Bitcoin Dominance

Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) isn't directly indicative of a risk-on or risk-off environment but plays a crucial role in deciding our allocation strategy between Bitcoin and the rest of our portfolio. An upward trend in BTC.D suggests an increased allocation towards Bitcoin, while a downward trend signals a shift in preference towards investing more in blockchains and decentralized applications (dApps). Currently, we're on the lookout for an upward move. This could lead to a scenario where Bitcoin experiences a parabolic rise, potentially causing altcoins to bleed. Alternatively, a correction in Bitcoin could result in an even more significant downturn for altcoins.

ETF Inflows

Reviewing ETF inflows helps us understand the money movements of institutional investors. When looking at Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), it appeared weaker at the beginning of the week but has shown signs of strength in the last few days, indicating increased interest or confidence. However, it's important to note that GBTC often acts as a lagging indicator compared to other parties, which means its movements might not immediately reflect broader market trends. This pattern suggests a cautious approach to interpreting its recent performance as a definitive sign of risk-on sentiment.

Total Market Caps

In analyzing market cap indicators to gauge the overall sentiment in the crypto market, we consider three different aspects. The first indicator, which is the total market cap of the cryptocurrency sector, hasn't reached an all-time high but is showing positive signs, indicating a risk-on environment that suggests confidence among investors.

The second market cap indicator, which excludes Bitcoin, appears weaker than the first, facing resistance. This situation presents a neutral to risk-off sentiment for altcoins, while still being bullish for Bitcoin, suggesting that Bitcoin might be a safer bet compared to other cryptocurrencies in the current market condition.

The third indicator goes a step further by excluding both Bitcoin and Ethereum from the total market cap, revealing an even more bearish outlook. This hints at a potential increase in bearish sentiment across altcoins, with the exception of Bitcoin, which remains in a relatively bullish stance.

Liquidity

Global liquidity trends serve as a barometer for market sentiment, with an upward trend being synonymous with a risk-on environment. This suggests investors are more willing to take on risk, buoyed by the availability of capital. Conversely, a downward trend in global liquidity marks a shift towards a risk-off environment, indicating a more cautious approach by investors as capital becomes scarcer.

Similarly, the trend in US liquidity follows the same pattern. An increase in US liquidity points to a risk-on sentiment within the United States, reflecting confidence and a willingness among investors to pursue riskier assets. On the other hand, a decline in US liquidity signals a risk-off mood, where there's a tendency to shy away from risk, prioritizing stability and safer investments instead.

Currently, both global liquidity and US liquidity are trending downwards, suggesting a more cautious or risk-off sentiment prevailing in the markets. This indicates that investors, both globally and in the US, are becoming more conservative, likely due to concerns over market stability or future economic prospects, prompting a preference for less risky assets.

Risk profile

We have decided to remain ultra-bullish Bitcoin as our indicators are flashing an ultra-bullish crypto environment. While it's not an alt-season environment, we are observing certain altcoins outperforming the market. Consequently, we have decided to not rebalance our vault and let our winners ride. Therefore, our risk profile can be classified as ultra-bullish.

Until next week,

Flagship’s Captain team