U.S. GDP Q4 2022

The U.S. economy grew strongly in the fourth quarter of the year, largely thanks to increased consumer spending on goods. However, as the year's end approached, this growth's momentum began to slow considerably. One of the main factors contributing to this slowdown is the rising interest rates, which have started to erode demand for various products and services.

The Commerce Department's advance report on the fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was just released. The Quarter on Quarter growth for Q4 of 2022 came in at 2.9%. This is a slight decrease from the previous report, which came in at 3.2%, but the expectations for Q4 were 2.6%. It is likely to be the last quarter of substantial growth before the delayed effects of the Federal Reserve's most aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle since the 1980s started to take hold. Many economists predict that a recession will occur by the latter half of the year, though it is expected to be relatively mild compared to previous economic downturns.

Retail sales have experienced a significant decline over the past two months, and the manufacturing sector may have also entered a recession, similar to the housing market. Despite this, the labour market remains robust, with low unemployment rates. However, business sentiment has been deteriorating, which could lead to a hiring slowdown.

The data for recent months, like the decline in retail sales, the slowdown in the housing market, and the weakening of the manufacturing sector, point to a broader economic downturn. The deterioration of business sentiment, a leading indicator of economic activity, further supports the notion that the economy may be losing steam.

In light of this, it is essential for the Federal Reserve to closely monitor economic indicators and prepare for potential challenges that may arise soon.